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About Us

Anthony Patton

WHO WE ARE

Wave Global Macro

As someone who benefitted from the TSP during my federal service, I've always been fascinated by the global financial markets: the ultimate puzzle. Is it possible to discover profitable signals amid the noise? The answer is, statistically speaking, yes.

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I majored in mathematics, earned an MBA in international finance, and completed certifications for Series 65 (Investment Advisor) and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Level III, the premier certification for technical analysis. I also devour public and subscription reports from the big players. Success includes following the big brains and the big money.

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I'm a former CIA officer with 30+ years of service with the U.S. Intelligence Community. I served in senior leadership positions around the world, which provided me unique insights about the global economy.

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Happy hunting,

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Anthony Patton

How do the economy and financial markets work?

The Economy as a Machine

World-renowned hedge fund manager Ray Dalio produced a great video about how the economy works.

Sector Rotation

State Street published an insightful report about how to rotate the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, which is relevant for adding mutual funds or ETFs to our portfolio.

How do we identify market waves?

1. Technical Analysis. Fundamental analysis (earnings, balance sheets, etc.) is important over the long run but doesn't offer timely signals to enter and exit trades. We rely on time-tested technical analysis tools to filter out the noise: high probability times to enter and exit trades. The trend is your friend, and some trends are stronger than others. Academic research confirms that trends persist and that trend following is the most profitable way to trade.

2. Relative Strength. To use a sports metaphor, picking the right horse means picking the fastest horse. Many assets are trending up at any given time, but relative strength is a quantitative tool to measure which asset are trending up with the most speed or momentum. In our case, we measure our trades against the classic 60/40 portfolio: to make the cut, assets must be outperforming on a relative basis.

3. Macro Analysis and Fund Flows. Macro variables, such as growth, inflation, Fed policy, and economic cycles influence which assets outperform. For example, bonds tend to outperform during recessions. The big players track these variables and provide insights about how the smart money is adjusting their portfolios. We keep our finger on the pulse of the macro economy and follow the smart money.

4. Mutual Funds. To improve portfolio diversification, which allows for better returns and or lower risk, we curated a list of mutual funds that identify waves within the five funds of the TSP. For example, we rotate sectors of the C Fund that outperform and regions of the I Fund that outperform. We also rotate bonds not included in F Fund and gold or commodities to improve diversification.

Why Wave Global Macro?

We want to earn your trust the old fashioned way, which is why we're offering FREE access to our newsletter until 2025!

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We encourage you to read our newsletter to better understand our methodology. When you're ready, you can paper trade or dip your toes in to start achieving your investment objectives.

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What's the TSP secret sauce?

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Numbers

Discipline

Patience

global macro analysis for TSP
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